🏈 AFL Round Round 11 — Model Overview
Round Round 11 of the 2026 Australian Football League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent AFL record: 17W/4L (81% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our AFL Round Round 11 Tips
For each Round Round 11 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 7 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round Round 11 Fixture Tips
Hawthorn vs Adelaide
📅 Thursday 21 May at York Park
Richmond vs Essendon
📅 Friday 22 May at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Fremantle vs St Kilda
📅 Friday 22 May at Perth Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast
📅 Saturday 23 May at Docklands
Geelong vs Sydney
📅 Saturday 23 May at Kardinia Park
Collingwood vs West Coast
📅 Saturday 23 May at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
📅 Saturday 23 May at Adelaide Oval
GWS vs Brisbane
📅 Sunday 24 May at Sydney Showground
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
📅 Sunday 24 May at Docklands
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
📅 Thursday 28 May at Docklands
Carlton vs Geelong
📅 Friday 29 May at M.C.G.
Sydney vs Richmond
📅 Saturday 30 May at S.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Brisbane vs Fremantle
📅 Saturday 30 May at Gabba
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
📅 Saturday 30 May at Docklands
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Staking Guide for Round Round 11
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every AFL Tip This Season
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